How many hours did you spend in your car?

My colleague was lamenting that cars used to be cheap to own and he regretted not buying earlier. I need to correct him, car ownership is never cheap in Singapore, especially if you use my calculation matrix.

Ever since I started using a GPS to navigate directions, I noticed that I drive an average of 1km/min. If the journey is 15km, I usually take 15 minutes to reach the destination. Hence my average travelling speed works out to be 60km/h. This is largely consistent with the average speed of most roads in Singapore other than the expressways.

My car has a mileage of 70,000KM. This translates to 1167 hours usage. My car is already 6 years old and the depreciation works out to be 20k, base on current value of my car. Thus it cost $17 to spend one hour in the car! This excludes cost of petrol, insurance and taxes!

If I were to buy a new car now, the depreciation will be about 10k per year, base on my usage pattern, my cost will be $52/h. Prices of car have doubled since 6 years ago, but car usage cost has actually tripled, at least for my case.

I am not complaining on high cost of car ownership, but many people only calculate base on yearly depreciation. If we were to dwell further, the cost of actual usage is extremely high and uneconomical. Sigh, living in Singapore is tough!

3 months from June low... Markets are up again!

In early June there was an opportunity to invest into the markets as markets looked bleak with eminent downside risks. This was an exact replication in April 2012 when markets have moved up swifty, with STI surpassing the 3,000 mark in April, before correcting to 2700 levels in June.

Fast forward 3 months later, markets are again in euphoria and STI has rallied 12% (before dividends).

If you look at fundsupermart GM’s portfolio, it has rallied about 10%( with dividends likely to be reinvested at the discretion of individual fund managers).

Do not belittle the dividends from stocks over the 3 months period as many blue chips firm paid the dividends for FY 2011 in July and August. For my humble low 6 figure portfolio, I got a couple of thousand dollars worth of dividends.

I took profit on my entire CPF OA equity unit trust portfolio on Friday, keeping my (cash) stocks portfolio largely intact as I am uncertain if markets would rally further. Unlike equity funds which are largely directional, some of my stocks holdings did not rally much over the past 3 months (eg SPH) or have not reached my target sell price (eg OUE).

Interestingly, as I am blogging, OUE is up 10% today as there are talks of possible asset sale. It is currently trading below book value and there is possible upside if the asset sale goes through. Read today’s AM Fraser report for more insight.

The markets are largely ranged bound since 2011. It seems that technical analysts would have a better return over the past 2 years compared to investors buying and holding for the longer term. My strategy is still to hold a core portfolio (at least 50%) in dividend yielding counters and purchase when markets correct 10% from my last profit taking levels. For instance, I took profit when STI was above 3000 points. If it goes near to 2700 or maybe even 2800 depending on the reasons for correction, I will enter the market. If markets continue to rally to 3300 from current levels, I may enter the market when it falls to 3000 points again depending on reasons for correction. This would ensure my funds are always invested when investors flee the markets and give higher potential upside from entry levels.

However, I do hold directional unit trust funds (which are so much easier to invest without emotions) and individual stocks which I try to control my excitement of watching them going various directions without being overly participative in premature trade executions.  

 My investment journey at large has been positive mainly because of dividend returns and a conservative mindset. I am happy with 6% P.A returns for my overall portfolio, anything extra is a bonus.

I believe yield counters will be favoured by fund managers (it is already happening) and with low interest rates for next 3 years, dividend returns will outshine stock appreciation yields over longer investment horizons.

Buy equities now and maybe after June 17 2012

Usually when the fundsupermart General Manager’s personal portfolio is in the red, it gives a clear indication of a buy for equities.

Down slightly as at 5th June 2012

There are likely 3 scenarios after June 17.

Greece pro austerity measures government wins election. Stock markets will rally.

Greece’s anti bailout government wins and Greece exit EURO. Short term pain, but European central bank will pump in money to stabilize economy. Buying opportunity for rebound.

Greece leaves Eurozone, central banks do nothing. 40% loss in stocks. This is the most unlikely scenario.

Looks like buying opportunities are appearing, now and after June 17th.

My quality of life

I met up recently with an old friend overseas. It has been a long 3 years since I met him and every time we chat about old times, I learnt something about life and relish knowing my old self. People essentially change over time; the current self is vastly different from the old self a decade ago. We are changing without self conscious. Sometimes people like to cling on memories as memories remain but people change, isn’t it?

However, some things in life don’t change. A decade ago, I was driving a humble 6 years old Japanese Toyota corolla 1.3litre to school. Today I am still driving a Japanese make except with an upsize 300CC simply because there wasn’t a 1.3litre version. It is still trusty and when I see people on road with a brand new continental car breaking down, I will grin to myself and pat my steering wheel for giving me worry free driving experience.

I realize that my need for material wants have not changed at all over a decade. When I met up with my friend I was still wearing old winter clothing and eating cheap food. Over the years, the only thing that has changed was my bank balances. I remembered earning $2,000 a month eating the same hawker food, occasional restaurant and overseas indulgences. Currently I earn about $7,000 monthly, I am still eating the same, spending the same and having the same level of material needs. I must be a freak as my 3.5 fold increase in income does not translate to a better life style! I am probably spending more on investment only!

Why is that so? Hasn’t my quality of life improved over the years?

If we look at per capita GDP, my “quality of life” under official statistics would have improved tremendously; if we look at GNP, my quality of life would have remained the same as my spending hardly increase much; if we look at spiritual satisfaction, I probably have enjoyed my than 4 folds increase in quality of life.

I believe quality of life cannot be measured by the annual value of your home or the average household income. It is the same of Maslow hierarchy of needs: A blue collar worker can achieve self actualization needs while a CEO may still be struggling to satisfy the esteem needs level.

Over the decade, I have gotten a few postgraduate degrees, been through a few relationships and changed 2 jobs. I changed from a high paying job government bonded job to a new private sector entry level job before moving on to a managerial role to where I am today. My pay fluctuated from $2,000 to $6,000 back to $2,000 and to current levels. I changed countless boss in-between: Bosses that groomed me and bosses that made me burning mad and left the government service.

On hindsight, whatever I have gone through has not been in vain. If not what I have been through, I would not have survived in my current post and be where I am today. If not for my nasty bosses, I would not have met nice ones that were willing to groom me. Life is about trying out new things isn’t it?

Along the years, my pursuit of knowledge made me a calmer person; I get less irritable on unfair treatment; more tolerance for irritating colleagues and bosses; less vocal on things that simply cannot be changed overnight. I will still not spend more than $70,000 on a car and still a firm believer that money should be spent on things you used the most, not on what people will use to judge you.

I do not know if I would change a decade from now, whatever it is, I believe I will continue to enjoy life and enhance my quality of life, regardless of my earning capacity. It is not how much I earn but rather my expectations of life that dictates my perception of good life quality.

Market Updates For Feb 2012 and Portfolio Adjustments

1) Local market STI increased approximately 11% year to date, 17% from Oct 2011 lows. There were similar returns across regional markets. US markets increase at a lower rate, roughly about 7% YTD.

2) The reasons contributing to the buoyant stock markets have little to do with market fundamentals. It is the consequent of central banks printing money as European Central Bank pledged to lend out 489B EUROS to ease potential credit crunch in Dec 2011. This is as good as providing cheap credit to banks which enable them to lend out more cheaply for investments. This money are flowing to Asia and emerging market regions. Just last week, funds investing in regional equities drew a net inflow of US$430M. This is the 4th straight month of inflows to Asian regions, which explains the 5th straight week of regional equities market appreciation.

3) Aussie dollars appreciated as stock markets rallied. Over the span of 2 months, it has increase more than 4% against SGD and 5.5% against USD.

4) Average turnover of equities are still below last year’s average. There is a noticeable increase in volume, not value. This translates to speculative trading of penny and mid cap companies stocks. An indicator that market may be looking toppish for the short term (3 months-6 months)

5) Borrowing costs continue to appreciate for corporate loans. This is a peculiar phenomenon. Notice that although banks are able to borrow cheaply from their central banks, they are charging high premiums on the interest lent out to companies, driving up returns on bond yields and returns. One local unlisted company have even issued out 8% PA (non investment grade), 3 year corporate bond.

6) The rationale is simple. World central banks provide cheap liquidity to their local banks. Instead of lending out to companies, they lent it out to governments instead. This way, they do not need to set aside the regulated reserve requirements as government bonds are considered their capital. What happens if government defaults then? The scenario though unlikely may result in foreign banks run.

7) The Baltic Dry Index as of last week has fallen to its lowest in 25 years. This index is a leading indicator of world trading activities, which means lower anticipated demand for raw materials.

8) Conclusion: There could be possible downside risk, given that markets have rallied so strongly over the past 1.5 months. Greece coalition government is under pressure from its own people and Euro zone leaders on their debts. There is small break through lately but with debt refinancing due in March, all eyes are on their ability to repay their current debt obligations. Nobody is able to forecast market’s reaction to Greece default as no EURO Zone member has defaulted.

9) What am I looking at to invest? I have taken profit on a number of equity positions and embarking on exciting leverage financing. I will pledge my shares for a cheap OD line (1.3% P.A.), purchase a 3 year SGD corporate bond and leverage on the same bond to purchase another one. This would increase my yield of $250,000 to 6.5% P.A, assuming interest rates remain low. This investment is at the final stage as my OD line is up, I just need to select the safe bond to leverage upon. My outlay will be approximately $150,000 in cash and $350,000 in borrowings. This would enhance my entire portfolio to $500,000 in fixed income, $230,000 in equities and $50,000 in cash. I will write more about this when the bonds are purchased. Margin call concerns will also be addressed.

Common Law Is The Law For Common Man 法证先锋3 Translation

Cantonese dramas are the best form of entertainment. It virtually costs nothing as it can be downloaded on the net, provide excellent subject knowledge of law and specialised fields. I took awhile to translate the above, impressed by the efforts made by the script/research writer. The below translation begins at 1:05

Pro Sir: Common law is the law for common man. Common law is the fundamentals of all Hong Kong laws. The model for common law is to accept the objectivity of rules. This refers to the unspoken rules agreed by the majority which dictates habits, truth and false, right and wrong. This forms the fundamentals of common law.

The motive behind an action is accepted is not solely due to my judgment but derived from the fundamentals of common law. It reflects the same motive behind the same action of the majority.

The accused forcefully inserted the pill bottle into the deceased mouth. The motive behind the action was to force the deceased to swallow ketamine pills within the bottle.

Lawyer: Your honour, the witness’s illustration has already been dislodged from the specialization of a forensic scientist.

Pro Sir: My professional judgment must definitely be base on the fundamentals of common law. Thus my court statement is not dislodged from my profession.

Judge: Expert witness, you may continue.

Pro Sir: Thus when you brought the bottle to your mouth with a swallowing action, the whole set of actions under normal circumstances would led one to believed that the bottle is filled with water or other forms of liquid. Thus a normal person would then be driven to display a drinking action.

Of course, a person would also would pick up an empty bottle and pretend to drink. This is because he is acting. He is an actor. The motive behind your actions is to create a perfectly logical scenario. In reality, your account is an unconceivable illusion which is a blatant attempt to overthrow the whole truth.

From your perspective, to overrule my judgment, your motive is reasonable. But I need to emphasize, the legal judgment I made is based on the fundamentals of common law. The accused forcefully inserted a bottle full of ketamine pills into the deceased’s mouth have led to her death.

This is definitely a correct judgment, closest to the truth.

Why I worry about retirement

Many close friends who read my blog often label me as a salty man. This has a negative connotation because in Hokkien context, it is “kiam” or scrooge in western terms. However, when I explained my rationale to them, suddenly they realize they either be prepared to work past 55 or be better off being more salty.

In today’s competitive workplace, there are not many people who are willing to work past 55 years old, even if they are ABLE to. Perhaps it is due to the increased pace of life and work pressure, many people just find it too stressful to cope mentally and physically beyond 55 years old.

The problem is exacerbated when the same group has ailing parents, growing kids and mortgages to repay monthly.

Life becomes much more stressful, simply because they need to work or they die (from debts and poverty).

In a nutshell, most people don’t retire at 55 simply because they cannot afford to do so, not because they choose not to.

Let’s work some simple figures here. Most Singaporean men with degrees start work at 25 years old. If they aim to retire at 55 years old, they have 30 years of working life. Assuming a life expectancy of 85 years old, they have another 30 years of income-less life to sustain after retirement.

This effectively means for every day we (men) work, we need to set aside funds for both the day we work and another day we do not work for the next 30 years.

And for the savings we put aside, we need to grow it at least at the prevailing 5.7% inflation rate in order to sustain the same kind of life style when we retire.

CPF only grows 2.5% PA, which is grossly not enough to cover inflation. Even if it is enough, most likely it is depleted to purchase HDBs which easily cost $500,000 at today’s prices.

Let’s assume again a modest lifestyle of $2,000 per month for a single at age 55. This works out to be $2,000 x 30 years = $720,000 cash balances in today’s dollars to sustain a modest life style. The amount will balloon to $900,000 if the single requires $2,500 a month for the next 30 years.

If we factor a conservative 4% inflation, today’s $720,000 will be worth $2.34M (future value) in 30 years time.

The same 4% inflation will make $900,000 today’s dollars worth $2.92M.

For people lost in reading, it simply means that you need $2.92M in 30 years time to buy something worth $900,000 today if inflation is 4%.

In order to enjoy the same modest lifestyle of between $2,000 to $2,500 per month, the individual who retires at 55 needs to set aside between $2.34M-$2.92M for him to call it quits at age 55, 30 years later.

This is not factoring if the individual lives beyond 85 and whether he can invest his retirement funds at the prevailing inflation rates. If he is unable to do so, he probably needs to sell off his house in order to exchange for food.

Most Singaporeans who buy houses today stretch their loans to 35 years. This means that a 30 year old couple will need to service their loans till they reach age 65 before they finally own their homes.

There are no prizes to guess why government is stretching the retirement age.

Some other observations I made as follows:

(1) Most singles out there probably spend more than $2500 a month, even if they just earn this much.

(2) Most people at age 55 now do not have $720,000 to $900,000 to lead a worry free life up to age 85. What makes you think we can achieve the equivalent amount in future value 30 years later?

(3) Medical costs and inflation rates are not at 4% only.

(4) You need to earn a minimum of $5,000 a month, save $2,500 a month and invest this sum at prevailing inflation of at least 5% consistently for the next 30 years in order to retire at 55.

(5) The sums required may increase 1.5x to 2x if you have a partner. If you have kids, you need to pray that they give u some allowance if you have not achieve the required by age 55

(6) You cannot afford to be retrenched or your retirement age stretches even further.

(7) You cannot depend on CPF for retirement if you have bought a house.

In my workplace, I do see many people earning high 4 figure salaries but have not much savings. They take for granted that health, wealth and career path will always be smooth sailing.

Let’s not be pessimistic about life but admit the fact that we can’t afford to retire if we are not prepared for it.

And I am not kiam, just getting prepared. :)