Saturday, June 14, 2008

Quick review on The prehistoric investor


I have finished reading the book after much procrastination and idle! To be fair, the ideas in the book are not extraordinary. However, it serves as a good reinforcement to my investment guiding principles.

Basically, the recurring theme is to highlight human’s fallacy in the stock markets as we are always too emotional for our own good.

The book explains in great detail how our survival instinct is actually detrimental for us to profit in the stock market and influencing us to make the worst decisions at the worst possible time.

The prehistoric investor is an excellent bedtime read as it is not too heavy going yet informative. However, I do believe that only those who have some experience trading in the stock markets will be able to relate the common mistakes highlighted in the book.

One thing I want to highlight is that the author’s portfolio is mainly small cap companies. Many of these companies mentioned in the book (written in 2004) have actually performed poorly. Example: OSIM and Sunray, which was quoted umpteen times for their great growth potential (then). We know that they are trading at historical lows now.

There are many excellent quotes in the book which I would be posting on my blog randomly for education purposes.

Mr. Market dances before us without a care in the world. And why not? He has no responsibilities at all. As an economic gigolo, he has only one objective: to be "attractive." Meanwhile, Mr. Value, a remarkably stolid and consistent fellow, never shows -- and seldom stimulates -- any emotion. He lives in the cold, real world where there is nary a thought about perceptions or feelings. He works all day and night inventing, making and distributing goods and services. His job is to grind it out on the shop floor, at the warehouse, and in the store, day after day, doing the real work of the economy. His role may not be emotionally exciting, but it is important. Mr. Value always prevails in the long run. Eventually, Mr. Market’s antics -- like sand castles on the beach -- come to naught.

~Charles Ellis

Friday, June 13, 2008

Steer clear of IPOs for now

I advise my readers not to ballot for IPOs at current market sentiments. It is actually difficult to invest on IPOs by looking at their prospectus. Many have painted beautiful pictures to attract potential investors.
If we were to analyse the IPOs launched last year, some have sinked more than 50%. Example: Z-Obee, China New Town, China Oil Field (down about 40%). Even REITS of "defensive" nature were not spared, like Saizen, down 30%.
The probability of making money from trading IPOs is less than 40%.
If you want to "bet" on IPOs, perhaps Singapore pools will offer better odds!

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Stretch your dollars series: Borrowing to invest

I received a mailer advertisement with my UOB cashplus statement. Initially I thought it was the usual 0% interest fund transfer with a 5% processing fee.

Nope, this time the processing fee is only 1.5% with 6 months 0% interest rate.

The minimum amount to borrow is $10,000. The website is here:
http://www.uobgroup.com/pages/promotions/promo_cashplus_funds.html

(According to my mailer, the promotion ends 15 July, not June 30 stated on the website.)

A quick calculation shows that the annualized interest rate is roughly 3.4%, 2% higher than SIBOR.

This is certainly enticing to me!

The interest accrued is actually $150 upfront. If you have read my stretch your dollar series
here, I have planned to use $1000 to pay my starhub bills in advance, together with my usual definite expenses. In this way, I can get a 10% rebate of $100. Now, even if I just leave $9000 in the fundsupermart cash fund for 6 months, at a conservative yield of 1% PA, I can get back $45 after 6 months. Which means the cost of borrowing is only $5 for 6 months!

Of course I still have to pay back a minimum sum of 3% (roughly $300) per month for 6 months before the 18% PA interest rate is reverted. Hence the borrowing cost is at most $10 for 6 months.

What’s the plan now?

I am actually planning to use the $10,000 this manner:

1) $1,000 for advance payments to obtain cashback of 10%
2) Invest $9,000 into Singpost before XD. In this way, by December 2008, the total dividends I have collected will be 5 cents per share, yielding roughly $450.

My total gain will be $550. After interest deduction of $150, my yield will be $400. By December I will be able to repay the remaining amount of $8200 (estimated) as my year end bonus is usually above $10,000.

In a way, I see it as advancing my year end bonus to invest into Singpost business now.

However, my current credit limit is only $8000, based on my payslip 2 years ago. Hence I need to send them a written mail and latest payslip to “upsize” my credit limit.

I hope they can increase my credit limit to $10,000 in time or else I will not take up the fund transfer promotion at any higher rates.

If I get lucky, I can win an Audi R8 too! Though I will definitely put up for sale to buy more Singapore Blue Chips!

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

If you have read my investment philosophy, I describe myself as a farmer who diligently plough my fields and look after my fruit orchards, while waiting patiently for my harvest.

Currently, the climate has turned for the worse; some of my fruit trees and crops appear weak. Some of my neighbours have started selling off their fields and going after the latest commodities rush. Others have started mining for gold, coal or switched planting palm trees, by burning off their planted crops prematurely to free up existing land.

A few cash rich businessmen have been looking for me the past few days. They are offering a ridiculously low price for the trees in my fruit orchard.

“Look! The climate has turned for the worse and it is highly likely you will lose everything if you hang on to your stupid trees! You better cut loss and keep the money for the rainy days!” One of the businessmen suggested shrewdly.

“My trees are fundamentally strong and have been through the worst climate. Yet they often offer me juicy fruits upon harvest. Some of them are actually more than 40 years old! Yet they are still growing strong and giving me good returns. ” I replied nonchalantly, not even bothering to bargain for a higher price for my trees.

“The whole world is selling off their fields and plantation! Look at your neighbours! They are now making so much more by investing in commodities! Are you saying the whole world is wrong except you?” Another businessman argued.

“Herd mentality.” I muttered. Just like the sheep I rear, they like to go near the wolves den together, without knowledge of danger. That’s the real risk, I thought quietly.

“You are going to regret this! Don’t ever come crying to me if your crops and trees can’t survive the climate! The businessmen stormed off.

Quietly I went back to my chest and look at my savings.

I think it is a good time to take over a portion of my neighbours’ plantations.

It’s the Great Cavemen Sale again!

EURO Fever

I am in a state of daze everyday due to the late nights EURO! I am actually not a soccer fan, but rather an uncle gambler! As most of my friends are football fanatics, our supper meet ups usually revolve around the latest bets. Hence inevitably, I am “embroiled” into the soccer (gambling) season!


My current “investment yield” in EURO 2008 is as follows:

Matches/ Gains or (loss)


Switzerland VS Czech Republic/ ($10)

Lost $10 at opening match to show my support for host country.

Austria VS Croatia/ $60

Won $60 when I placed a $100 bet against Croatia.

Germany VS Poland/ $38

Won $38 for supporting Germany!

France VS Romania/ ($50)

Lost $50 for believing in the French.

Spain VS Russia/ $ 32

Won $32 by placing a $50 bet to support Spain.

Subtotal: $70

Capital: 310

Gain for the week: 70/310 = 22.5%

I advocate my readers not to bet on soccer as the (SINGAPORE POOLS) odds are simply against the gambler! Though when possibilities (of winning) are in perspective, probabilities (of losing) get thrown out of sight!

It is likely I will not carry on betting on the EURO as the results are much tougher to predict relative to World Cup. I realized that the standard of the EURO teams that are playing are similar to World cup Semi finalist contenders. Score margins are pretty thin and the probabilities of draw matches become higher as the teams progress.

Although the amount I place for the bets are small, I am often too concern of the match outcome to sleep properly. I do wake up in the middle of the night (unplanned) to check the results and have difficulty sleeping thereafter.

In fact, I am down with a mild fever due to poor sleep. Hence, the capital outlay is not only monetary but also my health. Thus, I will now choose to keep my profits and eradicate my silly gambling habit to restore my mind and body.

I shall say NO to gambling for now!

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Technical analysis is not for me

Perhaps it is due to my low intelligence level, I find technical analysis a profound science (and art) to comprehend. Having read various books on fundamental and technical analysis, I am skeptical about any form of technical analysis.

The way I look at it is this: If graphs and charts can supposedly predict the stock market's movement accurately, why are we not warned of the countless market crashes?

Look at today's PhilipCapital technical analysis:

"The current rally we are seeing rose from a bottom that took 3 months to form and it is thus unlikely that it will end in 3 months – generally the time taken for the market to rally is longer than the time taken for it to consolidate. However, the current rally has lasted for 3 months straight and we are currently due for a technical correction.

The intermediate trend is still up, but the short term is currently trending down – a healthy correction. "

I do not understand the meaning of "intermediate trend is still up, but the short term is currently trending down".

This sentence will always hold true. If market recovers tomorrow, it shows the IMMEDIATE trend is still up. If market continues to fall tomorrow, it shows that the SHORT TERM trend is currently trending down.

WOW! That's as good as saying the market will either go up or down tomorrow.

I am confused as I can interpret it in another way:

Assuming similar movements form a trend.

For the past one and a half week, STI has been trending down daily, which is the "immediate trend" (not up). Hence, the short term trend is currently trending down.

So which part of the sentence is false and/or true? Unless "trend" in the same sentence denotes different meanings, I seriously find it difficult to understand the technical analysis!

That's why I say, technical analysis is not for me.

Who's the sucker?

As I was having lunch at a fast food restaurant today, I listened with amusement a conversation between a foreign bank insurance agent and her prospective client.

(I really do not mean to eavesdrop, but they were sitting just beside me and talking about my favourite subject.)

Let me give them fictional names of Jenny and Jeremy for illustration purposes.

Apparently the Jenny and Jeremy barely knew each other but Jenny was trying to convince him to take up an investment link policy (ILP) with low coverage, high premium and non-guaranteed return.

Another sucker, I thought, as Jenny started her sales pitch.

I was wrong.

Jeremy is actually a very savvy investor. Although he tried to conceal his knowledge on insurance and investments, the “blur” questions he posed was definitely not easy to answer!

Comments inside the ( ) denote my opinions.

Jeremy: How come ILP? The coverage is so little and yet the premium is so high. Why must we combine investment and insurance and not do it separately?
Jenny: Erm, like this saves time. (The commission is higher)
Jeremy: If I die, my investment might be liquidated at a bad time also right? (Aware of Murphy’s law)

Jeremy: Can I buy term and invest separately?
Jenny: For what? (Like this I have very little commission and cannot hit my June target!!)

Jeremy: How much is the management fees?
Jenny: 1.5% P.A
Jeremy: That’s very high!
Jenny: Quite ok what! No redemption charge leh! (It’s charged on you anyway)

Jeremy: The stock markets are quite attractive now. I want to invest. STI is still falling before I left home.
Jenny: Oh is it? (I don’t invest in stocks and unit trusts actually)

Jeremy: Can you tell me why I should invest in UTs through your bank and not just buy single stock equities?
Jenny: Because… (I am pretty and I am spending time to talk to you) it’s safer.
Jeremy: I know! Diversification right?
Jenny: Something like that.

I can go on and on, but although Jeremy appeared stupid and blur, in actual fact he is aware of “buy term invest the rest” concept, pitfalls of ILP, has been actively monitoring the stock markets and quite familiar with investment and insurance.

It is Jenny who with poor financial knowledge and only concern about sales target has been taken a ride for.

I smiled as I left for two reasons. One, Singaporeans are getting financially more savvy; two, people like Jenny who focuses only on products and sales targets will have to find another job, sooner or later.