Monday, March 14, 2011


Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy. I sense fear now. What are you waiting for?

Honestly, the last time I see such a scenario was during the Lehman Crisis in 2008. The selldown back then was even more earth shattering than this.

The last time STI went below 3000 points was roughly in August last year. This means that for STI has given up its 8 months gains due to the earthquake.

That said, 2800 points seems to be a safer entry point for long term investors. At that level, most banking stocks are giving at least 4% dividend yield on your investment.

Honestly, I have not much luck timing market cycles. Hence I try to always buy and rarely sell to build up my passive portfolio income.

If you are reading my blog and not invested, congrats. Buy now and hold as long as you can. Please buy me coffee when you have made money, on my right panel, thanks!


Soodo said...

Dear Singapore Blue Chips.

I wrote to you earlier that the price action was in the USA stockmarket and not the Singapore stockmarket.

Well, the price action has now moved from the USA stockmarket to USA Traesuries. I'm long USA Treasuries as of last night.

Eventually, the price action will return back to Singapore's stockmarket. Just not right now.

Why try to catch a falling knife?

Value investing is a form of market timing.

Tactical asset allocation is also another form of market timing.

I call it price action. You call it value investing.

Tomaytoe versus Tomahtoe


Sgbluechip said...

Hi Soodo, I enjoy your views. You sound very much like my boss where I hold the exact opposite views.

Are you using Sing dollars to long US treasuries?

I am not sure how you hedge your forex risk but I am quite sure come April there should be further appreciation of Sing dollars relative to US$.

I agree with you on market timing. Eventually stocks is about price as per property is about location.

Thanks for coming over to my blog. Do tell me when you long Sg stocks. I will follow you too!

Designer watches said...

I am switching over to Singapore stocks slowly.

Singapore blue chips may look attractive now. But the STI may look vulnerable to two potential catalysts: war in Middle Wast and any potential nuclear meltdown in Japan.

The Lehman fiasco didn't mark the bottoming of the 2008 financial crisis. There was a 6 month tug of war between the bulls and the bears before the market found a bottom. If i am not wrong, it was the Citibank 1 dollar incident that drew in the bargain hunters and marked the bottom in the market.

Therefore, I think it may be a bit early to bargain hunt now. It may be a Lehman style selldown this week.But I think there's more to come because the world has changed.

Soodo said...

Dear SBC
You are right about the forex risk I face. No matter how well I do, I will have to convert all my ill-gotten gains back into SingDollars to assess my final performance.

I'll certainly drop you a line here when I'm back in the Singapore stockmarket.

I still have half my position in cash in SingDollars. In this crazy world, a hard currency like SingDollar isn't so bad even if the interest rate is a joke.