In my course of work, I am rewarded
directly how accurate I read the future. If I get it right, clients make money
and I am rewarded with trading fees.
Often, I base my decision on a
combination of logic, pattern observation and intuition. Sometimes the trend
are extremely obvious, eg we should be buying USD or HKD ever since there are
talks from the Fed to hike rates last year; we should have been (and still)
borrow in Eur, in which the interest rates is below 1% and buying into higher
yielding assets like USD or good grade SGD bonds. When Capitaland issued a new
10 year bond paying 3.8% (reduced from initial price guidance of low 4%),
everyone who has money should have bought it, as banks are willing to lend at
least 70% of the purchase price and your outlay is only $75,000 for a $250,000
nominal value bond excluding fees. Today the bond trades above 102 bid. The
upside in H shares look extremely glaring with good banks like ICBC, ABC, BOC
(and many more), trading dividend yield of 7% with PE ratios of 5. Warren
Buffet has made a comment that this is as good as money on the ground. Just
pick it up. It was a no brainer that SIA and other airlines will benefit hugely
from the massive oil correction; local banks will benefit as interest rates are
expected to go up (3 years ago till now) etc.
I thoroughly enjoy the satisfaction that
comes with monetary reward when I am proven right at work. Sometimes I do get
it wrong as well. For instance, I did not expect HK gaming stocks to take a 40%
hit within a short span of 6 months, oil to correct more than 50% or CHF will
be rallying 30% last night. Good quality china property bonds are still paying
more than 7% coupons but yet trading less than 95 and many more. I don’t get it
wrong often, but sometimes not expecting an event means getting a forecast
wrong due to the ripple effect of events. That’s life.
Today let me make a free forecast on the
timing of Singapore elections. Again, I have a 50% chance of getting it right,
if its not this year, it will be next. However, it is more likely to be this
year, after National Day and PM rally for the following reasons:
The SG50 is an elaborated celebration. I
rarely follow what it is about, but it seems to have propaganda to let
Singaporeans have a euphoric feel on our past achievements and be ecstatic
about the future.
Mediacorp channel 8 shows are
advertising blatantly in their drama on the pioneer generation cards and other
excellent policies the government has administered. Ministers are attending
talk/interview shows on TV frequently!
Mediacorp is 100% Temasek subsidiary.
There will be more COE supply from Feb
2015 onwards, alleviating our cost of car ownership.
The earlier the elections, the better
for the ruling party. Less youngsters turn 21 to vote against them (if you have
been reading SMRT feeback and The Real Singapore on Facebook), while more elder
generation are alive to vote for their favourite elites.
The bull market started in 2009 March,
it is in the 6th year
and we all know we are nearer to the next bear than an extended bull. Will the
ruling party want to take the risk of having an election where there is a
financial crisis, where unemployment will be higher and less votes for them?
Revamp of IPPT and RT this year. This
will please many reservists, including myself. I will only need to pay a fine
if I do not attend IPPT after elections this year. Good job for that. I
appreciate the grace period.
Low oil prices will mean inflation will
be lower this year, giving MAS more leeway to weaken SGD and this will be a
boost to our GDP as we are 300% dependent on exports. Oil prices will not stay
low forever anyway. Many countries need it to be at US$100 to balance their
social budgets.
What’s the use of predicting? It is
useful for me as I can have a view of what will happen this year and plan my
investments or even my career according to my central view of the world.
I used to work in a civil service and I
could not stand the hypocrisy of incapable people playing politics to hide
their incompetence. Though I have seen many good people in mediocre roles
(myself included! Haa!) who on hindsight could achieve much more if they have
worked in the private sector. Yet the environment was so stifling and many
doubted themselves thus not daring to venture out of their familiar zones but
stayed in the old place, suffering. In 2009, I made a prediction that the
markets will definitely turn around sooner than later; studied a masters in
finance then and started a junior role in banking while studying part time.
Today I have enjoyed a good 5 years in banking and grown my personal investment
to a 7 figure sum, pretty much in tandem with the bull market. Hence I am a
firm believer that everyone should have some form of predictions that will aid
them in earning their first and subsequent pot of gold.
Back to my predictions; look at the
return on STI on the following election years
2 Jan1997 general election, STI
contracted from 2449 (2 Jan 1996)- 2216 (3 Jan 1997), loss of 9.5%. 1.5 years
later, STI hit 856 in August 1998.
3 Nov 2001 general election, STI
contracted from 1952 (3 Nov 2000) - 1341 (1 Nov 2001), loss of 31%. STI was
nearly at the bottom then but 1.5 years later, on 1 April 2003 STI fell to 1281.
6 May 2006 general election, STI rose
from 2161 (6 May 2005) – 2632 (2 May 2006), gained of 21.8%. The bull market
saw STI at 3805 in Oct 2007. 2 years after elections, STI fell to 1594 in Feb
2009.
7 May 2011 general election, STI rose
from 2752 (7 May 2011) – 3099 (2 May 2011), gained of 12.6%. STI is around 3300
now.
If my prediction that 2015 Sept is the
elections, by past 4 patterns, it seems that STI will always be lower after
elections, meaning a bear market will occur. There are no visible patterns on
whether STI will hit higher before elections.
Be careful of your investments, after
elections.
In my course of work, I am rewarded
directly how accurate I read the future. If I get it right, clients make money
and I am rewarded with trading fees.
Often, I base my decision on a
combination of logic, pattern observation and intuition. Sometimes the trend
are extremely obvious, eg we should be buying USD or HKD ever since there are
talks from the Fed to hike rates last year; we should have been (and still)
borrow in Eur, in which the interest rates is below 1% and buying into higher
yielding assets like USD or good grade SGD bonds. When Capitaland issued a new
10 year bond paying 3.8% (reduced from initial price guidance of low 4%),
everyone who has money should have bought it, as banks are willing to lend at
least 70% of the purchase price and your outlay is only $75,000 for a $250,000
nominal value bond excluding fees. Today the bond trades above 102 bid. The
upside in H shares look extremely glaring with good banks like ICBC, ABC, BOC
(and many more), trading dividend yield of 7% with PE ratios of 5. Warren
Buffet has made a comment that this is as good as money on the ground. Just
pick it up. It was a no brainer that SIA and other airlines will benefit hugely
from the massive oil correction; local banks will benefit as interest rates are
expected to go up (3 years ago till now) etc.
I thoroughly enjoy the satisfaction that
comes with monetary reward when I am proven right at work. Sometimes I do get
it wrong as well. For instance, I did not expect HK gaming stocks to take a 40%
hit within a short span of 6 months, oil to correct more than 50% or CHF will
be rallying 30% last night. Good quality china property bonds are still paying
more than 7% coupons but yet trading less than 95 and many more. I don’t get it
wrong often, but sometimes not expecting an event means getting a forecast
wrong due to the ripple effect of events. That’s life.
Today let me make a free forecast on the
timing of Singapore elections. Again, I have a 50% chance of getting it right,
if its not this year, it will be next. However, it is more likely to be this
year, after National Day and PM rally for the following reasons:
The SG50 is an elaborated celebration. I
rarely follow what it is about, but it seems to have propaganda to let
Singaporeans have a euphoric feel on our past achievements and be ecstatic
about the future.
Mediacorp channel 8 shows are
advertising blatantly in their drama on the pioneer generation cards and other
excellent policies the government has administered. Ministers are attending
talk/interview shows on TV frequently!
Mediacorp is 100% Temasek subsidiary.
There will be more COE supply from Feb
2015 onwards, alleviating our cost of car ownership.
The earlier the elections, the better
for the ruling party. Less youngsters turn 21 to vote against them (if you have
been reading SMRT feeback and The Real Singapore on Facebook), while more elder
generation are alive to vote for their favourite elites.
The bull market started in 2009 March,
it is in the 6th year
and we all know we are nearer to the next bear than an extended bull. Will the
ruling party want to take the risk of having an election where there is a
financial crisis, where unemployment will be higher and less votes for them?
Revamp of IPPT and RT this year. This
will please many reservists, including myself. I will only need to pay a fine
if I do not attend IPPT after elections this year. Good job for that. I
appreciate the grace period.
Low oil prices will mean inflation will
be lower this year, giving MAS more leeway to weaken SGD and this will be a
boost to our GDP as we are 300% dependent on exports. Oil prices will not stay
low forever anyway. Many countries need it to be at US$100 to balance their
social budgets.
What’s the use of predicting? It is
useful for me as I can have a view of what will happen this year and plan my
investments or even my career according to my central view of the world.
I used to work in a civil service and I
could not stand the hypocrisy of incapable people playing politics to hide
their incompetence. Though I have seen many good people in mediocre roles
(myself included! Haa!) who on hindsight could achieve much more if they have
worked in the private sector. Yet the environment was so stifling and many
doubted themselves thus not daring to venture out of their familiar zones but
stayed in the old place, suffering. In 2009, I made a prediction that the
markets will definitely turn around sooner than later; studied a masters in
finance then and started a junior role in banking while studying part time.
Today I have enjoyed a good 5 years in banking and grown my personal investment
to a 7 figure sum, pretty much in tandem with the bull market. Hence I am a
firm believer that everyone should have some form of predictions that will aid
them in earning their first and subsequent pot of gold.
Back to my predictions; look at the
return on STI on the following election years
2 Jan1997 general election, STI
contracted from 2449 (2 Jan 1996)- 2216 (3 Jan 1997), loss of 9.5%. 1.5 years
later, STI hit 856 in August 1998.
3 Nov 2001 general election, STI
contracted from 1952 (3 Nov 2000) - 1341 (1 Nov 2001), loss of 31%. STI was
nearly at the bottom then but 1.5 years later, on 1 April 2003 STI fell to 1281.
6 May 2006 general election, STI rose
from 2161 (6 May 2005) – 2632 (2 May 2006), gained of 21.8%. The bull market
saw STI at 3805 in Oct 2007. 2 years after elections, STI fell to 1594 in Feb
2009.
7 May 2011 general election, STI rose
from 2752 (7 May 2011) – 3099 (2 May 2011), gained of 12.6%. STI is around 3300
now.
If my prediction that 2015 Sept is the
elections, by past 4 patterns, it seems that STI will always be lower after
elections, meaning a bear market will occur. There are no visible patterns on
whether STI will hit higher before elections.
Be careful of your investments, after
elections.
3 comments:
I'm a 27 year old comp science dude who is going to start his first career job soon. I've been following financial advice by reading news and article from other people and it seems that I should plunge some of my paycheck every month on STI ETF and let it grow over the years. Should I save it up and invest it after the election comes?
Brave calls with good basis behind them. We shall see, perhaps let's revisit this in end 2015.
Hi there!
I am very impressed on the size of portfolio you have in your early 30s. Allow me to link you up and continue reading your shares!
jfree
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